Tackling uncertainty to revive growth

The global outlook has become more challenging. Persistent policy uncertainty, increased trade barriers, and weak consumer, business and investor confidence are weighing on investment and growth prospects. Trade costs and trading barriers have risen. Any setback from the projected growth or disinflation path could trigger market corrections, prolong restrictive monetary policy and further undermine global growth.

By facilitating purposeful multilateral dialogue and cooperation, the G20 can help address these shared challenges. This includes efforts to make international trading arrangements fairer and work better, while safeguarding the benefits of open markets and rules-based trade. Under South Africa’s 2025 G20 presidency, the G20 is focusing on three key actions to lay the foundations for stronger and more sustainable global growth, which the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development is supporting with our unique evidence base and policy best practices.

First, reviving productivity. The OECD has documented the productivity slowdown in recent decades. But, according to OECD estimates, artificial intelligence could lift productivity by up to 1.3 percentage points in countries with high AI exposure. Increasing investment in infrastructure and digital skills is essential to facilitate AI adoption. Towards this goal, the G20’s AI for Africa Initiative is seeking to accelerate the implementation of the African Union’s Continental AI Strategy and harness AI for the continent’s development. The OECD is supporting this effort through the OECD.AI Policy Observatory – a global repository of policies, data and analysis for trustworthy AI – along with insights from the OECD–African Union AI Dialogues and the joint OECD–African Union African Virtual Investment Platform.

Second, unlocking the full labour market potential of people across G20 members. Large pools of talent, particularly among youth and women, remain underutilised, even as economies face mounting skills shortages and the pressures of ageing populations. The OECD is supporting the next generation of G20 commitments, including the Nelson Mandela Bay Target to reduce the share of youth not in employment, education or training by 5% by 2030 and the Brisbane–eThekwini Goal to narrow gender gaps in labour force participation by 25% by 2030, relative to 2012 levels. These targets are designed to catalyse national action. The OECD will work with the International Labour Organization to help G20 members monitor their progress.

Third, building secure and resilient supply chains. Rising import concentration increases the risk of disruption. But OECD analysis shows that focusing on re-localising production domestically can be costly and fail to deliver the desired stability of supply. Resilience requires tapping into new sources of supply, supporting well-functioning global trade and enhancing supply chain flexibility. This is particularly evident in critical minerals, which are central to both the digital and green transitions. As demand for these resources grows, long-term resilience will require not only securing supply but also upholding strong standards on human rights, governance and environmental protection. Supply chains built on these principles are less vulnerable and more resilient over the long term. To facilitate this and ensure that critical mineral resources are a driver of shared prosperity, the OECD is supporting the planned G20 Critical Minerals Framework with tools, analysis and guidance on responsible business conduct, contract negotiation and illicit trade.

Beyond these priorities, South Africa’s 2025 G20 presidency has put the needs and priorities of African countries at the centre of its agenda, highlighting the need to unlock more financing for development. Financing gaps in developing countries grew by 60% between 2015 and 2022, but falling official development assistance levels risk deepening the shortfall. Working with the G20, the OECD is helping scale sustainable infrastructure investment in emerging markets through blended finance, helping overcome inflated risk perceptions that are hampering investment. We are also working to strengthen domestic resource mobilisation through capacity building and technical support. For instance, through 155 programmes, the OECD/UNDP Tax Inspectors Without Borders Programme has helped 70 jurisdictions raise an additional $2.4 billion in tax revenue and $6.39 billion in tax assessments over the past decade. This work complements other efforts to strengthen international tax cooperation, including the OECD/G20 Inclusive Framework’s work on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting and the Two-Pillar Solution, and the Global Forum on Tax Transparency’s efforts to strengthen tax transparency and exchange of information. 

G20 members are currently reflecting on  achievements and working methods and will make recommendations to ensure the G20 remains a key global forum for international economic cooperation. The OECD is proud to support this G20 member-led process, building on our longstanding engagement since the 2009 G20 summit in Pittsburgh. As we look to the future, the OECD will remain a trusted partner to the G20, as it responds to the rapidly evolving global policy environment and economy.